Posted by Kelly Dmetruk on November 13, 2008 at 15:00:45:
In Reply to: How Low Can You Go??? posted by Jon Adams on November 13, 2008 at 09:14:43:
Thanks for the topic - it was fun to think about!
I'm only going to speak to the female potential, as a female "average Jane", I guess I just find it more interesting. Anyway, my gut reaction to the times you posted was that the 5k and 10k times may be overly ambitious for an "average" runner, and the marathon time not ambitious enough. I decided to check the mcmillan calculator to get an idea of equivalent times, and it says that a 17:50 5k would be capable of a 37:03 10k and a 2:53 marathon. A 35:30 10k would be capable of a 17:05 5k and a 2:46 marathon, but a 3:30 marathon would only be equivalent to a 21:32 5k and 44:45 10k. Like you said, every runner is going to be stronger in certain distances than others, and these predictions are all based on proper training for the chosen distance raced, and probably ideal race conditions too. Personally, 17:50 and 35:30 seem pretty unattainable to me, and in most local races (at least in the south, I think), very few women are running those times. It's just hard to develop that speed, whereas developing endurance seems a lot more reasonable as we all get older. That said, I'm going for the following for an "average Jane":
5k - sub 19:00
10k - sub 40:00
marathon - sub 3:15
Admittedly, I think even these times take a certain amount of genetics combined with a lot of hard work to be able to be reached!